Saturday, December 8, 2012

Paul Collier - Summary of Traps

Paul Collier is an Economist from Oxford University who wrote a book titled "The Bottom Billion - Why the poorest countries are failing and what can be done about it". He gives 4 main reasons why the poorest countries (Sudan, Angola, East Timor), home to approximately 1 billion people, have failed to develop despite aid and international support. The four "traps" that cause economic stagnation are:

  1. Resource Trap - More natural resources means more conflict. There's 3 reasons for this paradox: 1) Resources make conflicts more likely as certain individuals want to control and take the resource. 2) Dutch Disease , whereby a country's manufacturing industry declines as resources are exploited. The country focuses much more on extraction rather than organic economic growth. 3) Countries are too poor to harness the money - the money gained flows out , or is wasted due to saturation. The stagnant economy stops future economic growth. 
  2. Landlocked Geography - Countries who are landlocked, with few resources and without good neighbors will be in poverty. One example is Rwanda-  it does not have sufficient trade links and can't have easy access to the markets because of it's instable neighbors and lack of natural resources. Switzerland is landlocked but has good relationships with it's neighbors for easy trade. Botswana, a relatively thriving African country, is landlocked too but has plentiful resources to extract and trade. Coastal cities do not have this issue as they are open to trading with the world via ship. One solution is to strengthen infrastructure and physical trade links. 
  3. Poor Government - Poor governments lack the means to enforce a good democracy and implement strong policies. There are often corrupt individuals ho use public office for private use, and often transfer funds received from aid or trade of resources to their own accounts. A poor government leads to a viscous cycle of poverty - the top leaders do not have a social contract with it's people, so it's people are poor and without adequate skills and money. A lack of money and skill means no money is invested for education, and a lack of education means a lack of quality professionals and future leaders in the next generation. This trap can be fixed by importing skilled brains into the nation as a temporary fix. 
  4. Conflict - Conflict is often caused by civil war. For example, in East Timor's long struggle for independence, civil war was rife and caused violence, rape, crime and a negative downward spiral. Conflict means an instable environment for people to focus on development. People live in constant fear and the priority is shifted to the military and war, rather than to foster more social and economic growth. Conflict is worsened by inequalities in society. The fix is to promote more peace. 

Flaws:

  • Collier's solution is that military intervention is NECESSARY to break the viscous cycle. He advocates positive violence to discipline these instable governments, many in Africa. This will surely cause much disagreement amongst many people! 
  • Collier assumes rationality. He ignores the African nationalism and inferiority complexes (towards themselves, which prompts nationalis thinking and rejection of the "white man") of the bottom billion, many of whom are anti-West due to negative ideological legacies of colonialismHe assumes that these people will act "rationally" and choose to cooperate to set up better governments, better policies from this TOP DOWN approach. 
  • In reality, there are so much more factors to be considered. Social, cultural and historical aspects have to be considered, I believe, in order to implement change. Top down approaches may work but it may cause much resistance at the start and prompt claims of "neocolonialism". 

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